Wednesday, April 16, 2008

The technology that will save humanity

"Clearly, the world needs a massive amount of carbon-free electricity by 2050 to stabilize greenhouse gas emissions." This is the key of a salon.com article discussing a specific form of energy technology that could very well make a huge difference to our world. Basically, to solve for global warming requires getting to an energy which doesn't have, as a side effect, to cause global warming.

There are many alternative energy technologies which could do this to some extent but might not work so well. For example wind power only produces electricity when the wind is blowing..

This salon.com article offers one energy source which could provide lots of power.. The Sun shines essentially limitless energy upon this planet. It's inexpensive, it's easy to capture, but the question would be how to store the energy and convert it into some useful form of energy like electricity.

"Solar electric thermal, also known as concentrated solar power (CSP), meets all these criteria." There's a long history to to concentrating solar power, such as mirrors used by ancient Chinese to ignite wood.

"The key attribute of CSP is that it generates primary energy in the form of heat, which can be stored 20 to 100 times more cheaply than electricity -- and with far greater efficiency. Commercial projects have already demonstrated that CSP systems can store energy by heating oil or molten salt, which can retain the heat for hours. Ausra and other companies are working on storing the heat directly with water in the tubes, which would significantly lower cost and avoid the need for heat exchangers."

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Monday, April 14, 2008

Food Riots Lead to Haitian Meltdown

In Haiti the food riots were severe enough that a UN "Peacekeeper" was killed, and the Prime Minister was forced to resign.

Food Riots Lead to Haitian Meltdown: On Saturday the Haitian Parliament voted to oust Prime Minister Jacques Edouard Alexis. This was in the wake of riots over food prices. They say "what started out as a protest against food and fuel prices has segued into a political mine field". The situation is described in terms of a power struggle between factions of Haitian leadership, making this sound like the result of manipulation by those factions rather than a natural outgrowth of anger over food prices. That is, it's possible some faction is manipulating anger over food prices to drive people into revolt. Or maybe not.

The Fury of the Poor does a good job of describing the desperate straits being faced by the Haitian poor.

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...On the roof of the former prison, enterprising women prepare something that looks like biscuits and is even called by that name. The key ingredient, yellow clay, is trucked in from the nearby mountains. The clay is combined with salt and vegetable fat to make dough, which is then dried in the sun.

For many Haitians, the mud biscuits are their only food. They taste of fat, suck the moisture out of the mouth and leave behind an aftertaste of dirt. They often cause diarrhea, but they help to numb the pangs of hunger. "I'm hoping one day I'll have enough food to eat, so I can stop eating these," Marie Noël, who survives with her seven children on the dirt cakes,...

...A daily bowl of rice is almost unaffordable....

"Should we be surprised that despair often turns into violence?" Indeed.

As quited in Food Riots Unlikely To Happen In Philippines? the IMF has warned that food riots are likely to have dire consequences around the world. World Bank President Robert Zoellick warned that exploding food prices threaten to cause instability in at least 33 countries, including regional powers like Egypt, Indonesia and Pakistan.

The article describes four causes:-

  • Ever growing world population while there is a decrease in arable land
  • Climate change causing loss of arable land due to several factors
  • Because of changing eating habits, more and more arable land and virgin forests are being turned into pasture for livestock. The yield per acre in calories of land given over to pasture is substantially lower than that of arable land.
  • The World Bank is demanding "market reforms" including removal of import tarrifs
  • Speculators are causing a rise in price of "raw materials" making it seem more attractive to grow food as "energy crops" rather than as food
  • Millions of people displaced by wars and unable to do productive things like raise their own crops

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Food Riots Unlikely To Happen In Philippines?

Over the weekend the more I thought about the food riots the more wrong this seemed. Here are some stories of potential food riots in the Phillipines.

Food Riots Unlikely To Happen In Philippines: In the Phillipines there are official reassurances that food riots will not happen there. The IMF Managing Director Dominique Strauss-Kahn told reporters at the IMF’s semi-annual meetings in Washington. “Hundreds of thousands of people will be starving, leading to a disruption of the economic environment” if food inflation keeps accelerating at its current rate.

The problem described in this article is purely the cost for food, especially rice and wheat. The Phillipines government apparently has enough reserves, both cash and stored grain, to avert a crisis.

Transcript of a Press Briefing by Tomasso Padoa-Schioppa, Italian Finance Minister and Chairman of the International Monetary and Financial Committee, and Dominique Strauss-Kahn, Managing Director of the International Monetary Fund, with John Lipsky, First Deputy Managing Director, and Masood Ahmed, Director, External Relations:

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...MR. STRAUSS-KAHN:...If food prices go on as they are today, then the consequences on the population in a large set of countries, including Africa, but not only Africa, will be terrible. Hundreds of thousands of people will be starving. Children will suffer from malnutrition, with consequences all of their lives.

Moreover, the consequences will be such that disruptions may occur in the economic environment, trade balances, current account, so that at the end of the day most of governments, having done well during the last five or ten years, will see what they have done totally destroyed and their legitimacy facing the population destroyed, also.

So, it is not only a humanitarian question. It is not only an economic question. It is also a democratic question. As we know, learning from the past, those kind of questions sometimes end into war. So, if we want to avoid that the huge rise in commodity prices, and especially in food prices, has these terrible consequences, then we need to take this problem into account much more than has been done until now. So, financial turmoil, on the one hand, slowdown in the economies, no decoupling from the emerging countries, global problems, that is one of the problems we have to face. Increase in price commodities, especially in food prices, that is the second problem we have to face. To do that, the reform of the Fund is certainly necessary, but we now need to devote a hundred percent of our time to these questions.

What I saw this morning is that the spirit of multilateralism is obviously alive and kicking, and that was probably the best news of the morning. Now, I think Tommaso and myself are prepared to answer all the questions you want....

Philippines Seeks Asian Summit on Food Crisis, Trade (Update4) :

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The Philippines, the world's largest rice importer, is urging China, Japan and other Asian nations to attend an emergency meeting on the region's food crisis ... Grain prices including rice, the staple food for half the world, have surged this year on concern there's a shortage in the international market, prompting some growers to impose export curbs. The higher prices are stoking unrest and fanning inflation,... China, Egypt, Vietnam and India, representing more than a third of global rice exports, have curbed sales this year, and Indonesia says it may do the same. ... Rice futures have almost doubled in the past year as the Philippines tried to secure shipments. ... Soaring food prices, together with the seizure in credit markets, topped the agenda at this weekend's meeting of the International Monetary Fund and World Bank.

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Saturday, April 12, 2008

The other global crisis: rush to biofuels is driving up price of food

I read this news article immediately after watching an episode of Doctor Who, and it seemed a story that would fit right in. 'A dramatic rise in the worldwide cost of food is provoking riots throughout the Third World where millions more of the world's most vulnerable people are facing starvation as food shortages grow and cereal prices soar.' The article says food riots are occurring in many countries, that the riots are due to rising food prices, and the rising food prices are due to food being diverted to biofuel production.

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The new market for biofuels has raised grain prices. Corn is being used to produce energy and the market is anticipating hugely increased production in the coming decade. George Bush wants 15 per cent of American cars to run on biofuels by 2017, which will mean trebling maize production. Europe has a set a transport fuels target of 5.75 per cent from biofuels by 2010. As a result, the price of corn has begun to track that of oil quite closely.

In order to preserve our way of life U.S. policies are causing fuel to be produced from the most inefficient fuel source possible which just happens to be food.

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Food-riot watch: Port-au-Prince under siege: Food riots seem to be happening around the world on a near-daily basis lately. U.N. peacekeepers fired rubber bullets and tear gas at an angry mob that tried to storm the National Palace in the Hatian capital, Port-au-Prince today. Riots began in Haiti last Wednesday and five people have already been killed in the violence. According to Reuters, the price of rice has doubled over the last six months and Haiti's poor are growing desperate:

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If the government cannot lower the cost of living it simply has to leave. That's our decision," said protester Renand Alexandre. "If the police and U.N. troops want to shoot at us, that's OK, because in the end if we are not killed by bullets we'll die of hunger."

Unsurprisingly, Haiti's government is stumped about how to deal with what is, in fact, a growing global crisis.

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Haitian leader's answer to food crisis doesn't satisfy critics

...the nationwide protest over rising food prices..."Our children are hungry and we can't feed them," he says. "We know we have a president in this country. So we're forced to get out on the street and cry for help to the people who have the capacity to do something for us. That's why we put up the barricades to block the cars. The president must do something about this."...After demonstrations turned violent and street clashes erupted between United Nations peacekeepers and protesters..."The proposals of the president, as good as they may be for the future of the country, do not solve the immediate problems of the population,"...Food prices are rising around the world, but perhaps nowhere have they had such a devastating impact than in Haiti...Since US troops whisked away former Frmer President Jean-Bertrand Aristide into exile during an armed rebellion in February 2004, the prices of rice and beans have nearly doubled, and in the past six months...

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Why costs are climbing
...Unlike past food crises, solved largely by throwing aid at hungry stomachs and boosting agricultural productivity, this one won't go away quickly, experts say. Prices are soaring and stand every chance of staying high because this crisis is different.

A swelling global population, soaring energy prices, the clamouring for meat from the rising Asian middle class, competition from biofuels and hot money pouring into the commodity markets are all factors that make this crisis unique and potentially calamitous. Even with concerted global action, such as rushing more land into cultivation, it will take years to fix the problem....

...Other UN officials have been equally blunt. Sir John Holmes, the UN's top humanitarian official and emergency relief co-ordinator, said this week that soaring food prices threaten political stability. The UN and national governments are especially worried about potentially violent situations in Africa's increasingly crowded urban areas. Rioting triggered by absent or unaffordable food could cripple cities. "The security implications should not be underestimated as food riots are being reported across the globe," Mr. Holmes said....

...Throughout history, the world has seen food shortages and famines triggered by drought, war, pestilence, crop failures and regional overpopulation. In the Chinese famine between 1958 and 1961, an estimated 30 million people died from malnutrition. In the late 1960s and early 1970s, severe food shortages hit India and parts of southeast Asia. Only the emergency shipment of hundreds of thousands of tonnes of grain from the U.S. prevented a humanitarian disaster. Drought, violent conflict, economic incompetence, misfortune and corruption created deadly famines in Ethiopia and Sudan in the first half of the 1980s....

...Starting next week, Britain will require gasoline and diesel sold at the pumps be mixed with 2.5-per-cent biofuel, rising to 5.75 per cent by 2010 and 10 per cent by 2020, in line with European Union directives. Ontario's ethanol-content mandate is 5 per cent. As the content requirements rise, more and more land is devoted to growing crops for fuel, such as corn-based ethanol. In the EU alone, 15 per cent of the arable land is expected to be devoured by biofuel production by 2020....

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Friday, April 11, 2008

Andalay Solar

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Andalay is an advanced, high performance solar power system with integrated high efficiency solar panels. It’s sleek and stylish, yet delivers unparalleled, built in reliability – a beautiful way to protect the environment, save power costs, and add to the value of your home or business.

Andalay is a product of Akeena Solar, Inc. (OTC: AKNS), one of the largest installers of residential and small commercial solar power systems.

Andalay was developed by engineers and technicians who understand solar power generation, and who also understand the practical challenges surrounding the installation of solar power on rooftops of residences and commercial buildings. We talk the talk because we walk the walk.

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Thursday, April 10, 2008

Everything You Wanted to Know About Peak Oil

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It's a long and very detailed slide presentation about peak oil.

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Mexico discovers 'huge' oil field

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Mexican President Vicente Fox has announced the discovery of a new deep-water oil field, which is believed to contain 10bn barrels of crude....The oil is under 930 metres (0.6 miles) of water and a further 4,000 metres (2.5 miles) underground.

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Peak Oil

The authors of Transport Revolutions: Moving People and Freight Without Oil were interviewed by the CBC about Peak Oil. "The likely outcome of not dealing with this issue is not an environmental catastrophe. It's an economic and social catastrophe that may leave us unable to deal with the environmental catastrophe," The gushers are gone and that's significant. Big oil discoveries aren't happening any longer. Global society has followed a pattern of depletion tactics, and we have depleted the available oil far enough that we are in danger of losing this beautiful society because of running out of oil.

They describe the effect of $250 per barrel oil as being equivalent to the hurricanes that hit the Gulf Coast in 2005 (Katrina and that other one). Those hurricanes were devastating to the U.S. economy, and high oil prices are always devastating to economic health. The price of oil can only increase from where it is today, because the supply of oil is not increasing while the demand for oil is increasing.

The tactic of making products in far away countries because of cheap labor, depends on the ability to cheaply transport the products around the world. So long as the transportation cost is less than the savings due to cheaper production, then production is incentivised to be done wherever it is cheapest to do so. But this practice of transporting goods all around the world is hastening the end of the oil age.

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America @ $100/Barrel: How Long Will the Oil Last?

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Popular Mechanics' take on peak oil and possible solutions.

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Peak oil? Consider it solved

'In January, Jeroen van der Veer, chief executive officer of Royal Dutch/Shell, e-mailed his staff that the world will peak in conventional oil and gas within the decade. He wrote: "Shell estimates that after 2015 supplies of easy-to-access oil and gas will no longer keep up with demand." It used to be unheard of for oil executives to talk about limits to oil production. ' Several other oil company executives are saying the same thing. This is a serious problem because in Transportation governments must take action twenty years before the oil crisis in order to have the transportation system survive the crisis, so says a U.S. Department of Energy study. 'Previous energy transitions (wood to coal and coal to oil) were gradual and evolutionary; oil peaking will be abrupt and revolutionary.'

To solve the peak oil crisis it isn't sufficient to find more liquid fossil fuels. The problem is bigger than a simple question of supplies. The fuller problem also includes environment and climate change problems, to be specific if we do not take drastic action right away the sea's will rise because of arctic ice melting into the ocean.

We must be wise enough to break our mutual oil addiction. If we solve for the immediate problem, the oil supply issue which will occur once the world passes the oil peak, the other problems will remain unsolved. We will still continue to use fuels which spew climate changing poisons into the environment causing increasing temperatures around the world, causing rising sea levels, and causing untold numbers of diseases in all life on the planet.

To be sure there are ways to extend the availability of liquid fossil fuels. Techniques exist to increase output from oil wells. They exist to convert coal into oil.

Greater efficiency can help a lot. In history every increase in fuel efficiency has required government action, either taxes or mandates. In todays environment of politicians striving to practice free trade and to unfetter corporations from the shackles of regulations this may be a non-starter, but history really has shown that corporations do not do things like this unless they have no other choice.

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Peak Oil

Description: 

The Hubbert peak theory, also known as peak oil, is an influential theory concerning the long-term rate of conventional oil and other fossil fuels production and depletion. It predicts that future world oil production will soon reach a peak and then rapidly decline.

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Oil Fields

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A wikipedia category for "oil fields"

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List of countries by oil proven reserves

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This is a list of countries by proven reserves of oil mostly based on The World Factbook accessed in September 2007.

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Giant oil and gas fields

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The world's 932 giant oil and gas fields are considered those with 500 million barrels of ultimately recoverable oil or gas equivalent. Geoscientists believe these giants account for 40 percent of the world's petroleum reserves. They are clustered in 27 regions of the world, with the largest clusters in the Persian Gulf and Western Siberian Basin. The past three decades reflect declines in discoveries of giant fields. The present decade (2000-2010), however, reflects an upturn in discoveries and appears on track to be the third best for discovery of giant oil and gas fields in the 150 year history of modern oil and gas exploration.

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Post Carbon Cities

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This website provides a valuable set of resources on energy and climate change, designed specifically for the people who work with and for local governments. The Post Carbon Cities program helps local governments understand the challenges posed by energy and climate uncertainty, and provides resources for elected officials, planners, managers and others to develop plans and responses appropriate to their communities.

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The Oil Depletion Protocol

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The Oil Depletion Protocol is an international agreement that will enable nations of the world to cooperatively reduce their dependence on oil. It was proposed by Dr. Colin Campbell, a prominent petroleum geologist and founder of the Association for the Study of Peak Oil and Gas (ASPO), in 1996.

By agreeing to reduce oil imports and exports by a specified amount each year, about 2.6 percent, signatory nations will help mitigate the negative consequences of an over-reliance on cheap oil and help prepare for a global decline in the world’s oil supply. The premise of the Protocol is inherently straightforward: oil importing nations would agree to reduce their imports by an agreed-upon yearly percentage, referred to as the World Oil Depletion Rate, while oil producing nations would agree to reduce their rate of production by their National Depletion Rate. This simple and sensible formula will produce, in effect, a global rationing system. If the entire world adopted the Protocol, global consumption of oil would decline by almost 3 percent per annum, thus stabilizing prices, preserving the resource base, and reducing competition for remaining supplies.

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Oil megaprojects

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Oil megaprojects are large oil field projects to bring a significant amount of new oil production capacity to market. Tabulations of oil megaprojects are used in an attempt to forecast whether future global oil supply will be adequate to meet demand for oil, or whether the world is reaching Peak Oil. As such, oil megaproject analysis has been controversial. This approach to oil forecasting is also known as the "bottom-up" approach, in that it relies on building a detailed model of where and when new oil production capacity will come on line....

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Peak Oil : Participate in “The New Game for Humanity”

"André Angelantoni, founder, Inspiring Green Leadership, hosts the free, bi-weekly Peak Oil, Climate Change and Business Online Executive Briefing, which educates businesses and individuals on the coming oil shock and how they can prepare for it." He is interviewed by Meredith Medlin of Living Green Effortlessly. He is talking of the coming oil crunch which is an inevitable result of the peak oil phenomenon.

He separates peak oil afficianados into two groups: 'rapid peak' and 'delayed peak'. He is a self-described rapid peak person, and has a message of approximately peak oil is coming real soon, we must now begin to change how society does transportation and everything.

I think he is overly focused on what individuals do in their households. While that is important the individual use of energy resources is only a small part of the overall picture. What of the corporate use of energy resources to produce and transport goods and services? The solution needs to come from not just personal changes but also corporate changes.

An interesting idea he raises is a parallel with the five stages of death and dying. Elizabeth Kubler-Ross defined these five stages that people tend to go through in dealing with the death of another. In this case we are observing the death of a lifestyle to which we have become accustomed. And I suppose they'd say the Hummer and other SUV's is an example of the Denial stage. "What? This can't be happening, there's no limitation on oil availability, so it doesn't matter if I drive a vehicle that gets 5 gallons to the mile. There's always going to be enough oil."

He recommends taking some initiative right now, especially in self-education, learning to build things, to be a resource for your local community, etc.

He also has a business coaching businesses in adjusting to the coming peak oil situation. He runs it as a 'game', the “New Game for Humanity”. He starts the game by suggesting that the goal is to create community-sufficient communities. That is, in addition to self sufficiency, that communities also must have sufficient resources for themselves.

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The Shape of Oil to Come

This is about an article that is about the way in which oil production is going evolve. Will there be a sharp peak, or a long lasting plateau?

It's largely about the peak oil phenomenon and what it says about our future. This phenomenon is an aspect of a general model that for any resource which undergoes continually increasing demand for more, there comes a time when the planet cannot provide more. The model drawn from observing the ability of oil companies to extract oil from oil fields shows that once demand reaches the point where the planet cannot provide more, that what happens is the resource begins to diminish and indeed provide less rather than more. Many oil fields around the planet have gone past this peak production point and it is debatable when the world overall will go past the worldwide peak point. And it is a concern over what happens after that point?

The article draws a distinction between "sharp peak" thinkers, and "plateau peak" thinkers. That is, will the oil production drop off sharply once the peak is reached? ("sharp peak") Or will there be a long period where the production stays the same before it begins to drop off? ("plateau")

What drives oil production is the discovery of new oil fields. The pattern is to use up the oil field, then move on to the next one and the next one and so on. Eventually we will run out of new oil fields. The current statistics shows there seems to be an adequate supply of new fields to maintain a plateau condition for several years into the future.

"In relation to the peak or plateau question, this raises two questions. For how long will the oil industry be able to add such a large amount of new production each year? And the second being, is the decline rate of 4% to 5% stable or will it increase or decrease in the future?...From historical data we know that discoveries peaked in the 1960’s and have been declining ever since. Presently we are discovering on average one barrel for every three consumed....While discoveries can influence the extension of the plateau, unconventional crude oil is not likely to have such an influence. With unconventional in this article I mean oil sands, oil shale, polar oil and heavy and extra heavy oil. Present scenario’s for these sources of unconventional oil estimate a production level between 8 to 12 million barrels per day in 2030 (Campbell, 2006; IEA, 2006). This is too little and too late...."

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Friday, April 4, 2008

On the 'transportation of inedible kitchen grease'

It seems a biodiesel advocate has been arrested for siphoning 300 gallons of grease from a Burger King in Morgan Hill, CA. Among the charges is 'Illegal transportation of inedible kitchen grease'. This is a bit curious and clearly there are a lot of biodiesel advocates who are going around collecting used fryer oil from restaurants. Though: "He certainly had been to other places in the area," said Morgan Hill police Cmdr. David Swing. "Our guess is its a bio-diesel fuel thing..."

California Food and Agricultural Code FOOD AND AGRICULTURAL CODE SECTION 19310-19317 does make this an illegal act.

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19310. (a) It is unlawful for any person or entity to engage in the transportation of inedible kitchen grease without being registered with the department and without being in possession of a valid registration certificate issued by the department.

19310.5. It is unlawful for any person who is not a registered transporter of inedible kitchen grease to transport that product from
any place within this state to any place outside the borders of this state.

19310.7. Any person registered as a transporter of inedible kitchen grease may deliver any inedible kitchen grease to a licensed renderer or collection center for processing or recycling into usable products. As used in this section, "usable products" includes, but is not limited to, biofuels, lubricants, and animal feed, provided the uses for animal feed are permitted by the rules and regulations adopted by the United States Food and Drug Administration.

...

There is a law waiting to be signed in California which would modify the requirements for the above license. In Help reduce WVO costs it is said the fee for the above license was increased from $175 to $400. This places the license beyond the reach of an individual collecting used cooking oil on their own. Waste derived biodiesel is a petition to Gov Schwarzenegger to sign the law.

It's interesting that there is an existing industry of waste oil recycling, who is fighting to protect their turf. And that there are desparate people looking for money and stealing waste oil.

Is this law being used to improve public safety? That is, perhaps there is a danger to public safety when transporting this cooking grease? Or was the law enacted to protect the entrenched industry of "waste" oil recycling.

It's a fact that a lot of vegetable oil is being produced and used in cooking all around the world. So I'm curious what happens to that oil after it's used in cooking? It is possible for the oil to be cleaned and reused, however as a former employee in fast food I know from personal experience the cost of doing so and how that process can only be done so many times. It would be possible for a processing company to make other products out of the oil. For example it's known vegetable oil contains glycerin, and it's well known you can make diesel fuel out of "waste" oil.

External Media

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Why stop burning fossil oil, and other fossil fuels?

Fossil fuels carry with them tremendous problems, many of which are not clearly obvious. The effects that come from burning fossil fuels are small, at the individual level. The exhaust coming out of a car is nigh-on invisible, for example. But it's like the way snowflakes are individually small, but if there are enough of them they form an avalanche that buries the town at the bottom of the mountain. If one adds up all the effects of all the use of fossil fuel it's adding up to widespread poisoning of our bodies and environment, and adding to the climate change problem.


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Thursday, April 3, 2008

Langsdorf s copaifera Copaifera langsdorfii Desf.

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A gardeners oriented description of growing Copaifera langsdorfii

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Journey to Forever Online Biofuels Library

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An intensive overview of biofuels ...

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AgroForestryTree Database: Copaifera langsdorfii

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AgroForestryTree Database: Copaifera langsdorfii: Copaifera langsdorfii is an evergreen tree to 6-12(-35) m tall, and 1m diameter....

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Copaifera langsdorfii Desf.

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Part of the Handbook of Energy Crops, a description of Copaifera langsdorfii Desf. a.k.a. the diesel tree

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Copaifera langsdorffii

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"The tropical rainforest tree Copaifera langsdorffii is known as the diesel tree and kerosene tree....It produces a large amount of terpene hydrocarbons in its wood and leaves. One tree can produce 30 to 40 liters of hydrocarbons per year...."

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Wednesday, April 2, 2008

Manual Intervention Motor Assist

Description: 

99MPG. com was started to support the MIMA modification to the Honda Insight, but has morphed into a site where creative individuals that have modified their hybrid cars to improve the efficiency can share their work with other like minded people.

We need to start now to save ourself s by working together.

They are a small group of people who are working on modifying their cars for higher efficiency.

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