Technosanity #20: World Energy Outlook 2008

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The World Energy Outlook is a yearly publication from the International Energy Agency giving the official projection of the future energy outlook. They just released the 2008 report and there are a couple slide decks available giving some hints of what is contained in the report.

WEO 2008 Presentation at COP 14 Side Event

Launch of World Energy Outlook 2008

World primary energy demand in the reference scenario - they say it's "unsustainable" without explaining why. World energy demand expands by 45% between now and 2030, a very rapid rise, an average rate of increase of 1.6% per year, with coal accounting for more than a third of the overall rise.

Demand for coal has been growing faster than any other energy source & is projected to account for more than a third of incremental global energy demand to 2030

World oil production by source is very scary. The IEA figures show a decline in crude oil production from the currently producing fields begining in 2008. er.. That decline has already begun? There is a growing gap in production of the currently producing fields and their claimed future oil production. What makes up that gap is crude oil from fields that are yet to be developed, and this includes use of enhanced oil recovery techniques. They further explain that 64 million barrels per day of capacity needs to be installed between 2007 and 2030, which is six times the current capacity of Saudi Arabia. From where will the money come to pay for this infrastructure even if the oil is there to fill the demand?

97% of the projected increase in emissions between now & 2030 comes from non-OECD countries –three-quarters from China, India & the Middle East alone

OECD countries alone cannot put the world onto a 450-ppm trajectory,
even if they were to reduce their emissions to zero

These last two slides show that the problem is coming from the developing countries, primarily China and India. They are of course where the hugest quantity of industrialization is occuring.
World primary energy demand in the reference scenario - they say it's "unsustainable" without explaining why. World energy demand expands by 45% between now and 2030, a very rapid rise, an average rate of increase of 1.6% per year, with coal accounting for more than a third of the overall rise.

Demand for coal has been growing faster than any other energy source & is projected to account for more than a third of incremental global energy demand to 2030

World oil production by source is very scary. The IEA figures show a decline in crude oil production from the currently producing fields begining in 2008. er.. That decline has already begun? There is a growing gap in production of the currently producing fields and their claimed future oil production. What makes up that gap is crude oil from fields that are yet to be developed, and this includes use of enhanced oil recovery techniques. They further explain that 64 million barrels per day of capacity needs to be installed between 2007 and 2030, which is six times the current capacity of Saudi Arabia. From where will the money come to pay for this infrastructure even if the oil is there to fill the demand?

97% of the projected increase in emissions between now & 2030 comes from non-OECD countries –three-quarters from China, India & the Middle East alone

OECD countries alone cannot put the world onto a 450-ppm trajectory,
even if they were to reduce their emissions to zero

These last two slides show that the problem is coming from the developing countries, primarily China and India. They are of course where the hugest quantity of industrialization is occuring.

Current energy trends are patently unsustainable —socially, environmentally, economically

Oil will remain the leading energy source but...

-- The era of cheap oil is over, although price volatility will remain

-- Oilfield decline is the keydeterminant of investment needs

-- The oil market is undergoing major and lasting structural change, with national companies in the ascendancy

To avoid "abrupt and irreversible" climate change we need a major decarbonisation of the world’s energy system

-- Copenhagen must deliver a credible post-2012 climate regime
-- Limiting temperature rise to 2°C will require significant emission reductions in allregions & technological breakthroughs
-- Mitigating climate change will substantially improve energy security

The present economic worries do not excuse back-tracking or delays in taking action to address energy challenges

Technosanity #20: World Energy Outlook 2008

Links: 

World Energy Outlook

Links: 

International Energy Agency

Links: 

WEO 2008 Presentation at COP 14 Side Event

Links: 

Launch of World Energy Outlook 2008

AASIN: 

World Energy Outlook 2008

Technosanity #20: World Energy Outlook 2008

You are missing some Flash content that should appear here! Perhaps your browser cannot display it, or maybe it did not initialize correctly.

The World Energy Outlook is a yearly publication from the International Energy Agency giving the official projection of the future energy outlook. They just released the 2008 report and there are a couple slide decks available giving some hints of what is contained in the report.

WEO 2008 Presentation at COP 14 Side Event

Launch of World Energy Outlook 2008

World primary energy demand in the reference scenario - they say it's "unsustainable" without explaining why. World energy demand expands by 45% between now and 2030, a very rapid rise, an average rate of increase of 1.6% per year, with coal accounting for more than a third of the overall rise.

Demand for coal has been growing faster than any other energy source & is projected to account for more than a third of incremental global energy demand to 2030

World oil production by source is very scary. The IEA figures show a decline in crude oil production from the currently producing fields begining in 2008. er.. That decline has already begun? There is a growing gap in production of the currently producing fields and their claimed future oil production. What makes up that gap is crude oil from fields that are yet to be developed, and this includes use of enhanced oil recovery techniques. They further explain that 64 million barrels per day of capacity needs to be installed between 2007 and 2030, which is six times the current capacity of Saudi Arabia. From where will the money come to pay for this infrastructure even if the oil is there to fill the demand?

97% of the projected increase in emissions between now & 2030 comes from non-OECD countries –three-quarters from China, India & the Middle East alone

OECD countries alone cannot put the world onto a 450-ppm trajectory,
even if they were to reduce their emissions to zero

These last two slides show that the problem is coming from the developing countries, primarily China and India. They are of course where the hugest quantity of industrialization is occuring.
World primary energy demand in the reference scenario - they say it's "unsustainable" without explaining why. World energy demand expands by 45% between now and 2030, a very rapid rise, an average rate of increase of 1.6% per year, with coal accounting for more than a third of the overall rise.

Demand for coal has been growing faster than any other energy source & is projected to account for more than a third of incremental global energy demand to 2030

World oil production by source is very scary. The IEA figures show a decline in crude oil production from the currently producing fields begining in 2008. er.. That decline has already begun? There is a growing gap in production of the currently producing fields and their claimed future oil production. What makes up that gap is crude oil from fields that are yet to be developed, and this includes use of enhanced oil recovery techniques. They further explain that 64 million barrels per day of capacity needs to be installed between 2007 and 2030, which is six times the current capacity of Saudi Arabia. From where will the money come to pay for this infrastructure even if the oil is there to fill the demand?

97% of the projected increase in emissions between now & 2030 comes from non-OECD countries –three-quarters from China, India & the Middle East alone

OECD countries alone cannot put the world onto a 450-ppm trajectory,
even if they were to reduce their emissions to zero

These last two slides show that the problem is coming from the developing countries, primarily China and India. They are of course where the hugest quantity of industrialization is occuring.

Current energy trends are patently unsustainable —socially, environmentally, economically

Oil will remain the leading energy source but...

-- The era of cheap oil is over, although price volatility will remain

-- Oilfield decline is the keydeterminant of investment needs

-- The oil market is undergoing major and lasting structural change, with national companies in the ascendancy

To avoid "abrupt and irreversible" climate change we need a major decarbonisation of the world’s energy system

-- Copenhagen must deliver a credible post-2012 climate regime
-- Limiting temperature rise to 2°C will require significant emission reductions in allregions & technological breakthroughs
-- Mitigating climate change will substantially improve energy security

The present economic worries do not excuse back-tracking or delays in taking action to address energy challenges

Technosanity #20: World Energy Outlook 2008

Links: 

World Energy Outlook

Links: 

International Energy Agency

Links: 

WEO 2008 Presentation at COP 14 Side Event

Links: 

Launch of World Energy Outlook 2008

AASIN: 

World Energy Outlook 2008

The rise of the new energy world order

An energy crisis is running amok right now. A taste of the crisis is: the ever-climbing price of oil and gasoline, truckers being forced to not truck stuff around, airlines going out of business or merging, food riots around the world, etc.

...Energy of all sorts was once hugely abundant, making possible the worldwide economic expansion of the past six decades. This expansion benefited the United States above all - along with its "First World" allies in Europe and the Pacific. ... China and India...participate in...industrializing their economies...This, in turn, has led to an unprecedented spurt in global energy consumption - a 47% rise in the past 20 years alone, according to the US Department of Energy (DoE). ... The combination of rising demand, the emergence of powerful new energy consumers, and the contraction of the global energy supply is demolishing the energy-abundant world we are familiar with and creating in its place a new world order. Think of it as rising powers/shrinking planet.

The article goes on to describe a "new world order" dictated by the changing energy supply dynamics.

A fierce competition for dwindling resources, which are identified as "oil, natural gas, coal and uranium". Coupled with that is a shift in global power to the countries who are rich in resources, which are identified as "Russia, Saudi Arabia and Venezuela".

If current trends continue as they are, China is destined to overtake the United States in 2025 as the worlds leading consumer of "energy". However the article also identifies China as one of the "energy poor" countries and I think it's doubtful the trends will continue as they are. As the article says elsewhere, there is a shift to countries rich in resources and China is poor in energy resources while rich in others.

Several of the developing countries are constructing their own oil and natural gas companies as a way to compete with those companies based in Western countries. This includes Sinopec which has established a strategic alliance with Saudi Aramco. Likewise China National Petroleum Corporation (CNPC) will collaborate with Gazprom to build pipelines and deliver Russian gas to China. Several of these state-owned firms are now set to collaborate with Petroleos de Venezuela SA in developing the extra-heavy crude of the Orinoco belt once controlled by Chevron.

The oil peak is coming. The US DoE claims that world oil demand, expected to reach 117.6 million barrels per day in 2030 but it's not clear where that oil will come from. Instead industry experts are quoted saying even 100 million barrels per day is extremely optimistic.

...the authors of the Medium-Term Oil Market Report, published in July 2007 by the International Energy Agency, an affiliate of the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development, concluded that world oil output might hit 96 million barrels per day by 2012, but was unlikely to go much beyond that as a dearth of new discoveries made future growth impossible....

Alternative energy sources such as wind or solar power are simply not being developed quickly enough.

...According to the DoE, renewable fuels, including wind, solar and hydropower (along with "traditional" fuels like firewood and dung), supplied but 7.4% of global energy in 2004; biofuels added another 0.3%. Meanwhile, fossil fuels - oil, coal and natural gas - supplied 86% of world energy, nuclear power another 6%. Based on current rates of development and investment, the DoE offers the following dismal projection: In 2030, fossil fuels will still account for exactly the same share of world energy as in 2004. The expected increase in renewables and biofuels is so slight - a mere 8.1% - as to be virtually meaningless.

In global warming terms, the implications are nothing short of catastrophic: Rising reliance on coal (especially in China, India and the United States) means that global emissions of carbon dioxide are projected to rise by 59% over the next quarter-century, from 26.9 billion metric tons to 42.9 billion tons. The meaning of this is simple. If these figures hold, there is no hope of averting the worst effects of climate change. ...

But rather than invest in "alternate" technologies

...the major energy firms (backed by lavish US government subsidies and tax breaks) are putting their mega-windfall profits from rising energy prices into vastly expensive (and environmentally questionable) schemes to extract oil and gas from Alaska and the Arctic, or to drill in the deep and difficult waters of the Gulf of Mexico and the Atlantic Ocean. ...

Article Reference: 

The rise of the new energy world order

extvideo: 

The rise of the new energy world order

An energy crisis is running amok right now. A taste of the crisis is: the ever-climbing price of oil and gasoline, truckers being forced to not truck stuff around, airlines going out of business or merging, food riots around the world, etc.

...Energy of all sorts was once hugely abundant, making possible the worldwide economic expansion of the past six decades. This expansion benefited the United States above all - along with its "First World" allies in Europe and the Pacific. ... China and India...participate in...industrializing their economies...This, in turn, has led to an unprecedented spurt in global energy consumption - a 47% rise in the past 20 years alone, according to the US Department of Energy (DoE). ... The combination of rising demand, the emergence of powerful new energy consumers, and the contraction of the global energy supply is demolishing the energy-abundant world we are familiar with and creating in its place a new world order. Think of it as rising powers/shrinking planet.

The article goes on to describe a "new world order" dictated by the changing energy supply dynamics.

A fierce competition for dwindling resources, which are identified as "oil, natural gas, coal and uranium". Coupled with that is a shift in global power to the countries who are rich in resources, which are identified as "Russia, Saudi Arabia and Venezuela".

If current trends continue as they are, China is destined to overtake the United States in 2025 as the worlds leading consumer of "energy". However the article also identifies China as one of the "energy poor" countries and I think it's doubtful the trends will continue as they are. As the article says elsewhere, there is a shift to countries rich in resources and China is poor in energy resources while rich in others.

Several of the developing countries are constructing their own oil and natural gas companies as a way to compete with those companies based in Western countries. This includes Sinopec which has established a strategic alliance with Saudi Aramco. Likewise China National Petroleum Corporation (CNPC) will collaborate with Gazprom to build pipelines and deliver Russian gas to China. Several of these state-owned firms are now set to collaborate with Petroleos de Venezuela SA in developing the extra-heavy crude of the Orinoco belt once controlled by Chevron.

The oil peak is coming. The US DoE claims that world oil demand, expected to reach 117.6 million barrels per day in 2030 but it's not clear where that oil will come from. Instead industry experts are quoted saying even 100 million barrels per day is extremely optimistic.

...the authors of the Medium-Term Oil Market Report, published in July 2007 by the International Energy Agency, an affiliate of the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development, concluded that world oil output might hit 96 million barrels per day by 2012, but was unlikely to go much beyond that as a dearth of new discoveries made future growth impossible....

Alternative energy sources such as wind or solar power are simply not being developed quickly enough.

...According to the DoE, renewable fuels, including wind, solar and hydropower (along with "traditional" fuels like firewood and dung), supplied but 7.4% of global energy in 2004; biofuels added another 0.3%. Meanwhile, fossil fuels - oil, coal and natural gas - supplied 86% of world energy, nuclear power another 6%. Based on current rates of development and investment, the DoE offers the following dismal projection: In 2030, fossil fuels will still account for exactly the same share of world energy as in 2004. The expected increase in renewables and biofuels is so slight - a mere 8.1% - as to be virtually meaningless.

In global warming terms, the implications are nothing short of catastrophic: Rising reliance on coal (especially in China, India and the United States) means that global emissions of carbon dioxide are projected to rise by 59% over the next quarter-century, from 26.9 billion metric tons to 42.9 billion tons. The meaning of this is simple. If these figures hold, there is no hope of averting the worst effects of climate change. ...

But rather than invest in "alternate" technologies

...the major energy firms (backed by lavish US government subsidies and tax breaks) are putting their mega-windfall profits from rising energy prices into vastly expensive (and environmentally questionable) schemes to extract oil and gas from Alaska and the Arctic, or to drill in the deep and difficult waters of the Gulf of Mexico and the Atlantic Ocean. ...

Article Reference: 

The rise of the new energy world order

extvideo: 

Electrical energy storage for the home

Pumping power onto the grid from your basement: Discusses a new product that's meant to help shave off the peak energy demand on hot days.

The idea is to have a bank of batteries that are charged at night. This relies on time-of-use power metering (TOU) which charges the user different costs per kilowatt-hour depending on the current capacity on the power grid. Generally power demand is high during the day, and low at night. Under the principle of supply-demand economics it makes sense to charge more for electricity during the day (when demand is high) than is charged at night (when demand is low). So, essentially it's a power storage unit that does time shifting for electricity.

The product comes from Grid Point

They bill it as a kind of backup power supply. Generally this device keeps supplying power even if the power grid is shut down. The power grid can be shut down because it's overloaded due to the peak demand on hot days, or because a natural disaster has struck. As a backup power supply it's a heck of a lot cleaner than a diesel generator, because there's no exhaust.

One statement in the article stands out ...

Extremely high summer temperatures that tax the grid, such as those happening this summer in the U.S., are happening more frequently

Um, excuse me, but it is not the high temperature that taxes the grid. It's what people do because of the high temperature that's taxing the grid.

What typically happens because of the high temperatures is .. well .. people crank up the air conditioner, right? Is it the temperature that's causing the increase in electricity use? NO, it's the reaction of cranking up the air conditioner.

I discussed the effect here: Air Conditioning: "We're cooking our planet to refrigerate the diminishing part that's still habitable"

When we cool a building with an air conditioner, it's only making the problem worse. It's shifting heat outside, making the outside hotter. It's causing increased electricity use, making for more pollution and greenhouse gasses in the atmosphere.

There are alternatives. We have thousands of years of human experimentation with surviving hot weather that we can look to for alternatives. But with modern technology we're ignoring that history as if our ancestors were nothing but dumb ignorant savages. Sigh.